This is my 4th straight year making predictions for the online video space. If you want to see how my predictions fared in other years here’s 2009, 2010, and last year’s 2011. For my 11 predictions last year, I rate them a 8/11 which is pretty decent. Let’s see how I fare this year.
12 online video predictions for 2012
1. Yahoo invests $250M into original video content – Yahoo has a new CEO and seems to be getting more and more focused on online video. I think that Yahoo takes a big step towards re-establishing their corporate identity and it’s in the video space.
2. Standards for views and ad creatives are finally implemented – There is still lots of confusion as to what constitutes a video view online, and 2012 will be the year where a standard will be set. Some people think that if a video starts that’s a view, while others think a whole video must be watched for it to count as a view, clarity will come in 2012. Every video ad company seems to have their own formats but this will end as ad standards will be put in place for video, much like display banners abide by now.
3. Mobile video explodes – I’ve been predicting this for a few years and every year mobile video traffic seems to double it’s viewing audience thanks to increased penetration of iPhones, Android based phones, and tablets.
4. Apple’s “iTV” makes OTT mainstream – There are a bunch of great “over the top” products out there for your TV including; Apple TV, Roku, Boxee, and others, but as Steve Jobs says they are just hobby businesses well at least for Apple to date. But in 2012 Apple is going to be releasing TV’s in the 30″-50″ range which will sell like crazy to Apple’s raving fans, and these iTV’s will dramatically increase consumer’s use of iTunes for purchasing video content.
5. Social TV – More and more people are watching TV and sending out tweets about what they’re watching, their perspectives on what they’re seeing, and engaging with other passionate viewers. Social TV will be huge in 2012 as Twitter and Facebook create tighter relationships with the TV networks.
6. HTML 5 – This seems to be the format of choice long term even though it’s still in its infancy right now compared to flash. This format is much more dynamic than all the others and will ultimately become #1, but not until 2015. HTML 5 will see more growth than ever before in 2012.
7. YouTube will buy a company – The world’s largest video sharing site continues to build out its ecosystem both through building features internally, and acquiring technologies externally. YouTube is growing up and is stepping outside of Google’s shadow, and 2012 will be the biggest year ever for YouTube. If you are tired of YouTube coverage now, you haven’t seen anything yet!
8. Hulu gets acquired – There was a ton of speculation that Hulu would be acquired throughout 2011 but it never happened, but in 2012 it will. I’m going to double down on my Yahoo prediction and say that Yahoo buys Hulu to become a serious online video player.
9. Netflix gets acquired – There was also lots of speculation that Netflix would be acquired in 2011, but again much like Hulu nothing happened. Netflix has seen its subscriber base and stock price dramatically decrease since its pricing model changed, but it’s still a strong brand in the streaming video space. I’m going to call Netflix is sold, but not at a price that its CEO, board of directors, or investors are overly happy with.
10. Google Plus delivers big views – Facebook and Twitter drive huge video views as social video emerges. Google Plus’s social network is exploding and as a result it will become a major player in delivering video views, especially to its toddler site, YouTube.
11. More online video stars get movie deals – Famous Fred of YouTube got a deal with Nikelodeon to star in “Fred the Movie” which did quite well from what I heard. There will be more of these kind of deals happening in 2012, mainly to the YouTube partners who have strong character personalities like Fred possesses.
12. Remote video collaboration takes off – With more and more cloud based video editing platforms emerging, along with matchmaking sites like Spidvid emerging, 2012 will be a year that many video creators and talent open up to the possibility of bringing on external talent to their teams and using new tools to help manage those projects.
If you have a 13th prediction to add then please add it below!
Cheers to 2012 which will be online video’s biggest year yet!